What this economy means for you

As the most serious credit crisis in decades rocks your finances, you've got to have questions. Here are the answers.

By Stephen Gandel and Paul J. Lim

Last Updated: October 8, 2008: 4:10 PM ET

Money Magazine) -- Back in January, when it first became clear the economy and the markets were in for a rough patch, the consensus forecast was that we'd have seen the worst of it by now.

Perhaps you put a bit more cash in the bank, trimmed the fat from your budget and tweaked your 401(k) allocations, but otherwise you were confident you could stay the course.

Then came the extraordinary events of September: the government's seizure of Fannie Mae and Freddie Mac and rescue of American International Group; the bankruptcy of Lehman Brothers and pending sale of Merrill Lynch; the first money market fund loss in more than a decade; a series of bank fire sales; and a politically charged federal bailout plan that could carry a $700 billion price tag. You can't help but wonder what all this means to you.

Here are some key questions, from when stocks could bounce back to what's ahead for the economy and home prices. Choose a topic to get some answers.

The economy

The stock market

Your savings

Insurance

The real estate market (see below or go to link)

The real estate market

By Stephen Gandel and Paul J. Lim

Last Updated: October 8, 2008: 4:10 PM ET

 

Is there any hope for home prices?

The burst real estate bubble that kicked off this crisis is unlikely to reinflate quickly. "I don't see the slump in housing prices ending anytime soon," says Dean Baker, co-director of the Center for Economic Policy and Research. The government takeover of Fannie Mae and Freddie Mac lowered mortgage rates briefly (which helps buyers afford your home).

But the bankruptcy of Lehman Brothers, the failure of Washington Mutual and the sale of Wachovia, as well as the stock market sell-off, have made investors nervous about everything, mortgage bonds included. And that has pushed home-loan rates right back up.

The proposed government bailout could help home prices if the banks that get relief turn around and make new loans, but it's not clear that they will. More important, housing prices are not just a factor of mortgage rates. Foreclosures and slow sales have left 4-million-plus homes on the market, nearly half a million more than two years ago. That could get worse before it gets better if rising unemployment translates to fewer buyers to work off that fat inventory.

"In the long run none of what we're doing now is going to matter that much to real estate," says Wellesley economics professor Karl Case. "Home prices have to do with the scarcity of land and perception of that scarcity."

Until homes for sale are again scarce, it will continue to be better to be a buyer than a seller. Most economists expect another 10% drop in housing prices nationally over the next year. Some, like Nouriel Roubini of New York University, say a 15% to 20% drop is more likely.

The credit market (see below or go to link)

The credit market

By Stephen Gandel and Paul J. Lim

Last Updated: October 8, 2008: 4:10 PM ET

 

How tough is it really to get a loan today?

For months you've likely been hearing about (or even experiencing) tight credit: frozen home-equity lines of credit, lower credit-card limits, tougher loan standards. That could be just the beginning. One reason regulators have been so anxious to step in during this crisis is the fear that consumer and business borrowing will be shut off altogether.

For now, though, many people are still able to get loans. "If you have good credit, job stability and low debt, there is a good likelihood that you will get a mortgage," says Marc Savitt, president of the National Association of Mortgage Brokers.

In general you'll need a 660 credit score and a 10% down payment to qualify for a loan. Another important criterion is how much of your monthly income goes to repaying all your debts. Today lenders want you to cap that at 41% of your income.

Getting a small business loan is similarly tough. But if you can borrow and have the itch to strike out on your own, small business experts say economic downturns can be a good time to start a venture. In bad times, you may find better deals on, say, advertising and office space. And some of the land mines are more apparent.

"When existing companies are stumbling, it's more obvious what mistakes are to be avoided," says Bob Chalfin, a Metuchen, N.J. small business adviser and a lecturer at the Wharton business school. "When there is change, there is opportunity."

The job market

Your retirement

 Link to Article

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